Why the Edmonton Oilers should re-sign Connor Brown as a free agent

The Edmonton Oilers enter free agency with little room under the salary cap and some real issues, despite reaching Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.

In addition, the organization is struggling with uncertainty on and off the ice.

How many productive free agents can management bring back without impacting the salary cap?

There are two main focuses: the return of the penalty-killing unit that achieved breathtaking results during the play-offs, plus a second right winger who can work with one of the team’s best centers, attack and help outscore of the score.

Edmonton management needs to sign that player for a good deal and be absolutely sure from the start that the bet is right. Another slow start is not an option for the 2024-25 season, as the Oilers had to make the playoffs all winter because of a terrible start.

That’s a tough solution for any team, let alone one without a general manager.

Not all news is bad for the team. There is a solution.

Connor Brown.

An unusual year

Edmonton’s management team, led by CEO Jeff Jackson, wants to overhaul the roster and add players who can help the team take the final step toward winning the Stanley Cup.

Brown’s Oilers career began when Ken Holland signed him to an incentive-laden deal. There may be a feeling that it is time to move on.

That sentiment would overlook a very productive player.

Last year’s contract is a sunk cost. No one can reasonably expect Brown to sign a deal that provides the Oilers with extreme value given his ineffectiveness through the first two-thirds of the season. Both parties signed the deal in good faith, and Brown’s only sin was that it took him longer than expected to reach the point where he provided value.

His post-deadline and play-off performance was impeccable and superior to the first 75 percent of his season.

All Numbers Five Against Five, Via Natural Stat Trick

The numbers tell the story. Brown had to knock off the rust and find his scoring touch; the last part of the regular season was of good quality.

He continued his good play in the postseason. The five-on-five scoring suffered, but Brown’s excellent scoring and outscoring on the penalty kill was a major story for the club in its impressive playoff run.

No offense

During the regular season, Brown played very little five-on-five with Connor McDavid’s line (zero points in 62 minutes) and was ineffective (0.39 points per 60 in 155 minutes) with Leon Draisaitl on the second line.

He was most effective (1.94 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five) after the deadline with newcomer Sam Carrick.

During the play-offs, Brown played very little with the top two centers and again had success (1.32 points per 60 in 45 minutes at five-on-five) with Carrick.

He also had success on the ice (3-1 goals at five-on-five) with Adam Henrique as his center, but he scored only one point in 69 minutes.

Half of Browns’ postseason offense (1-2-3) came on the penalty kill with fellow winger Mattias Janmark.

None of the five-on-fives during the regular season, other than the Draisaitl minutes (all but eleven before the deadline and Brown’s emergence), can be used to authoritatively discount Brown as a top-six scoring winger.

A healthy Brown could potentially provide an upset with Draisaitl or McDavid.

Brown’s own past

While a member of the Ottawa Senators, Brown had success with Brady Tkachuk (scored 1.87 points per 60 in 898 minutes), Chris Tierney (2.26 points per 60 in 717 minutes) and Josh Norris (1.83 points per 60 in 717 minutes). 60 in 328 minutes). All numbers are five against five.

During his last three seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs, he scored 1.69 points per 60 minutes in 566 five-on-five minutes with a young Auston Matthews.

Noteworthy: Brown and Zach Hyman played together on a line where Brown scored 1.52 points per 60 in 634 minutes.

If Brown plays well and isn’t back from an injury serious enough to cause him to miss an entire season, he could be an offensive presence.

While Carrick’s playing time is limited during the regular season and the playoffs, that suggests he can also play in a depth line in attack.

Use of oil machines

Signing Brown won’t stop the Oilers from aiming higher in free agency. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletics delved into free agency and discovered several impressive names, including Viktor Arvidsson.

Signing both Arvidsson and Brown may seem like overkill, but injuries have affected both men over the past 12 months, and both can play up and down the depth chart.

A right-wing depth chart of Hyman, Arvidsson and Brown could give the organization its best depth at the position since the 2006 Stanley Cup run, when Ales Hemsky, Radek Dvorak and Fernando Pisani gave the team tremendous scoring and outscoring ability.

It would mark a major upgrade from over a year ago.

Costs

Fans have been saying for some time that Brown should be cut due to the nature of his bonus-laden deal last summer.

That is unlikely.

Edmonton management could secure an affordable cap hit by signing a multi-year deal with the veteran.

The contract likely won’t be too expensive and Brown could be an extremely high value contract if he actually gets playing time on the highest skill lines.

In short

Jackson could be tempted to sign players who offer a different look to the club. Arvidsson would be a strong option for the Draisaitl line, with Hyman firmly on the top line with McDavid.

Brown’s appeal stems from his ability to play a two-way role on either line. A full season from the veteran winger would give the team a boost from the start of the season, something he couldn’t deliver a year ago.

Signing Brown (and Janmark, if the organization can pull off both) could serve as insurance against another slow start.

The two men were excellent at killing penalties in the playoffs, outscoring their opponents 3-1 during the period when Edmonton was undermanned.

The Oilers’ top free agent signing this summer showed the team what he could do this spring.

(Photo: Sergei Belski / USA Today)